| Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world's | | | | Since the oddsmaker's ultimate goal is equally dividing |
| premier oddsmaking company and the most | | | | the betting action, public perception and betting |
| respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is | | | | patterns must be taken into account. For example, |
| a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making | | | | the public might have heavy betting interest week |
| lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, | | | | after week on a popular college football team such |
| Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers | | | | as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary |
| assigned to make lines for each of the major sports | | | | line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 |
| (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, | | | | would be made in response to the public's expected |
| boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique | | | | USC bias. |
| opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. | | | | The last step in the line-making process for each |
| Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies | | | | oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine |
| who love what they do and would probably do it for | | | | whether or not the line "feels right." This is where |
| nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for | | | | common sense and past experience with how games |
| it. By necessity their approach is very | | | | are bet enters into the picture. |
| research-oriented and concise, since with millions of | | | | A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers |
| dollars at risk there is little margin for error. | | | | involved in making the line for each sport is then |
| "You either have a passion for it or you don't," Seba | | | | conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by |
| said. | | | | the Odds Director before it is released to the |
| "The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game | | | | sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 |
| that creates good two-way action. We do this by | | | | most respected opinions are weighed more heavily |
| drawing from past experiences and applying them to | | | | by the Odds Director before he decides on the final |
| current situations. People think it's much more | | | | line. |
| complicated, but it's not." | | | | Why the Line Changes |
| What Is the Line Trying to Accomplish? | | | | Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the |
| There is a common misconception that point spreads | | | | individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make |
| represent the oddsmakers' prediction of how many | | | | any adjustments before offering it to the public. |
| points the favorite will win by. That is not the case | | | | Reasons for such adjustments include: |
| at all - their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS | | | | Experts working for the individual books having a |
| result between the teams; rather, their goal is to | | | | strong opinion on the game |
| attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated | | | | Individual books having players who consistently bet |
| another way, they want to create a line that half the | | | | with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias |
| people find appealing to bet one way while the other | | | | toward favorites or toward a certain popular team |
| half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as | | | | like USC) |
| 'dividing the action'). | | | | The purpose of these adjustments, like all line |
| Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a | | | | adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting |
| profit on the game because of the fee charged to | | | | action. |
| the bettor (called juice or vig - typically $11 bet to | | | | Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line |
| win $10). | | | | at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more |
| How the Opening Line Is Made | | | | attractive the team that is getting less action. By |
| The opening line is the first line created by the | | | | moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the |
| oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. | | | | public bets on a particular game. |
| Of course there is an entire method to the madness | | | | For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and |
| on how the opening line is created. Seba explained | | | | most of the money is coming in on the underdog |
| that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line | | | | (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the |
| on each game based upon their own personal | | | | number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money |
| approach. This usually includes having up-to-date | | | | on the favorite. |
| power ratings on each team. | | | | Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance |
| Power ratings are the oddsmaker's value of each | | | | betting action, and often times such moves can have |
| team and are used as a guide to calculate a | | | | a major impact on a bettor's decision. |
| "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The | | | | Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on |
| power ratings are adjusted after each game a team | | | | various event-related factors such as player injuries |
| plays. Examples of non-game factors that would | | | | or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week |
| require an adjustment to a team's power rating are | | | | ahead of the event (which is the case in football), |
| key player injuries and player trades. | | | | there is much that could happen during the week |
| Once a game's power rating based pointspread is | | | | leading up to the event that could affect the line. |
| determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to | | | | Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are |
| that line after considering each team's most recent | | | | necessary and send out an "adjusted line." |
| games played and previous games played against | | | | "The main objective is that our clients get equal |
| that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after | | | | action on both sides," Seba said. "We're not trying to |
| reading each team's local newspapers to get a sense | | | | pick the team that covers the spread, we're trying |
| of what the coaches & players are thinking going into | | | | to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the |
| the game. | | | | bettor). If we've done that, we've done our job. |