| Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the | | | | equally dividing the betting action, public |
| world's premier oddsmaking company and the | | | | perception and betting patterns must be taken |
| most respected authority on making the lines. | | | | into account. For example, the public might |
| Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and | | | | have heavy betting interest week after week |
| has been making lines for the last six years. | | | | on a popular college football team such as |
| In our extended interview, Seba explained | | | | USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a |
| that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to | | | | preliminary line of USC -7, then an |
| make lines for each of the major sports (pro | | | | adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in |
| & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, | | | | response to the public's expected USC bias. |
| boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring | | | | |
| unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to | | | | The last step in the line-making process for |
| the process. | | | | each oddsmaker is taking one final look to |
| | | | determine whether or not the line "feels |
| Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports | | | | right." This is where common sense and past |
| junkies who love what they do and would | | | | experience with how games are bet enters into |
| probably do it for nothing if you asked them, | | | | the picture. |
| but they do get paid for it. By necessity | | | | |
| their approach is very research-oriented and | | | | A round-table discussion among the 4-5 |
| concise, since with millions of dollars at | | | | oddsmakers involved in making the line for |
| risk there is little margin for error. | | | | each sport is then conducted and a consensus |
| | | | line is decided upon by the Odds Director |
| "You either have a passion for it or you | | | | before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of |
| don't," Seba said. | | | | the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most |
| | | | respected opinions are weighed more heavily |
| "The #1 thing for us is to make a line for | | | | by the Odds Director before he decides on the |
| each game that creates good two-way action. | | | | final line. |
| We do this by drawing from past experiences | | | | |
| and applying them to current situations. | | | | Why the Line Changes |
| People think it's much more complicated, but | | | | |
| it's not." | | | | Once the opening line is released by LVSC, |
| | | | the individual sportsbooks decide if they |
| What Is the Line Trying to Accomplish? | | | | want to make any adjustments before offering |
| | | | it to the public. Reasons for such |
| There is a common misconception that point | | | | adjustments include: |
| spreads represent the oddsmakers' prediction | | | | |
| of how many points the favorite will win by. | | | | Experts working for the individual books |
| That is not the case at all - their intent is | | | | having a strong opinion on the game |
| NOT to evenly split the ATS result between | | | | |
| the teams; rather, their goal is to attract | | | | Individual books having players who |
| equal betting action on both sides. Stated | | | | consistently bet with certain tendencies |
| another way, they want to create a line that | | | | (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or |
| half the people find appealing to bet one way | | | | toward a certain popular team like USC) |
| while the other half find it appealing to bet | | | | |
| the other way (known as 'dividing the | | | | The purpose of these adjustments, like all |
| action'). | | | | line adjustments, is to more equally divide |
| | | | the betting action. |
| Divided action means the sportsbook is | | | | |
| guaranteed a profit on the game because of | | | | Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust |
| the fee charged to the bettor (called juice | | | | the line at any time. In doing so they |
| or vig - typically $11 bet to win $10). | | | | attempt to make more attractive the team that |
| | | | is getting less action. By moving the line, |
| How the Opening Line Is Made | | | | sportsbooks can influence how the public bets |
| | | | on a particular game. |
| The opening line is the first line created by | | | | |
| the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to | | | | For example, if the pointspread on a game is |
| sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire | | | | 7 and most of the money is coming in on the |
| method to the madness on how the opening line | | | | underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will |
| is created. Seba explained that it all starts | | | | then move the number down to 6 ½ to try |
| with each oddsmaker creating a line on each | | | | and attract money on the favorite. |
| game based upon their own personal approach. | | | | |
| This usually includes having up-to-date power | | | | Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to |
| ratings on each team. | | | | balance betting action, and often times such |
| | | | moves can have a major impact on a bettor's |
| Power ratings are the oddsmaker's value of | | | | decision. |
| each team and are used as a guide to | | | | |
| calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an | | | | Oddsmakers can also change the line depending |
| upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted | | | | on various event-related factors such as |
| after each game a team plays. Examples of | | | | player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the |
| non-game factors that would require an | | | | line comes out a week ahead of the event |
| adjustment to a team's power rating are key | | | | (which is the case in football), there is |
| player injuries and player trades. | | | | much that could happen during the week |
| | | | leading up to the event that could affect the |
| Once a game's power rating based pointspread | | | | line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any |
| is determined, the oddsmaker will make | | | | changes are necessary and send out an |
| adjustments to that line after considering | | | | "adjusted line." |
| each team's most recent games played and | | | | |
| previous games played against that opponent. | | | | "The main objective is that our clients get |
| Also, adjustments are made after reading each | | | | equal action on both sides," Seba said. |
| team's local newspapers to get a sense of | | | | "We're not trying to pick the team that |
| what the coaches & players are thinking going | | | | covers the spread, we're trying to make it a |
| into the game. | | | | coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). |
| | | | If we've done that, we've done our job. |
| Since the oddsmaker's ultimate goal is | | | | |